Last week, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) released their Pending Sales Report which showed that contracted sales were 12.8% higher than the same month last year and higher than any time since sales were impacted by the Homebuyers’ Credit back in April of 2010. The index stood at 101.4 which represents a level that is “historically healthy” (see methodology below).

Here is a graph showing pending sales over the last twelve months:

METHODOLOGY (as per NAR)

The Pending Home Sales Index is a leading indicator for the housing sector, based on pending sales of existing homes. A sale is listed as pending when the contract has been signed but the transaction has not closed, though the sale usually is finalized within one or two months of signing.

The index is based on a large national sample, typically representing about 20 percent of transactions for existing-home sales. In developing the model for the index, it was demonstrated that the level of monthly sales-contract activity parallels the level of closed existing-home sales in the following two months. 

An index of 100 is equal to the average level of contract activity during 2001, which was the first year to be examined as well as the first of five consecutive record years for existing-home sales; it coincides with a level that is historically healthy.

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The Spring market is upon us. Professionals across the country are reporting that buyer activity is very strong. Purchasers are beginning to realize that this is one of the greatest times in American real estate to buy a home. There are basically four reasons for this:

1. They realize that it is the COST of the home that matters most, not the PRICE.
2. They realize that it is actually LESS EXPENSIVE to own than to rent in 98% of the country.
3. They realize that SHORT SALES are a real bargain.
4. EVERYONE is now saying it is time to buy.

The market is turning for the better. It may be time for you and your family to jump in.

Attention Real Estate Professionals

If you would like a further explanation of the four points above, join us on our webinar today at 2PM EST.

The KCM Blog

Today, we are again honored to have Ken H. Johnson, Ph.D. — Florida International University (FIU) and Editor of the Journal of Housing Research as our guest blogger. To view other research from FIU, visit http://realestate.fiu.edu/. - The KCM Crew

What is the definition of a healthy housing market?  Is it a housing market in which home prices are decreasing?  Few would agree with this.  Is it a market in which home prices are increasing?  At first glance, many would agree with this definition.  However, increasing prices cannot be used to diagnose a healthy housing market.  If increasing prices indicate market health, then in 2005 housing markets were “very” healthy, and we know that this is not true.

If pricing does not indicate market health, then what does?  The answer is simple: it is market liquidity and not pricing that indicates the health of a housing market.  Liquidity has been defined in many ways but it basically boils down to: can an individual seller, at a time of their choosing, successfully market their property at or near market value?  We often hear of rates (turn-over and absorption) that are related to this concept.  Unfortunately, these measures are difficult to estimate and they all have something to do with outstanding inventory.  What really matters, regardless of outstanding inventory, is the likelihood that a property will close.  This is the most basic meaning of market liquidity and it can easily be proxied.  

All of the data necessary to proxy a particular market’s liquidity (and thereby its health) is available on the daily “hot sheets” of almost every MLS in country.  Since liquidity is really just a batting average all that needs to be done is total the successful transactions (closed properties) and divide these by the failed listing transactions (Expireds + Withdrawns + Cease Efforts + Cancelled)[1][2].  The resulting number is a very close approximate to the probability that any given property listed in that market will close and an increasing trend in this number indicates improving market health.

Implications

Pricing trends do not indicate the health of a housing market.  Keep in mind.  For almost every sell in an increasing market, there is a repurchase at a higher price.  For almost every sell in a decreasing market, there is a repurchase at a lower price.  Thus, pricing is a “double edged sword”.  Gains/Losses on a sell are almost always accompanied by higher/lower repurchases.  Thus, pricing trends can never indicate the health of a particular real estate market.  Instead, it is market liquidly, which can be easily proxied, that actually indicates market health.  After all, the real goal is for a seller of property to be able to transact at or near market value with a high degree of certainty.  Fortunately, most MLS’s around the country have the information at their fingertips to estimate the health of their particular market. 

It is liquidity (not price) that matters.

Endnotes

[1] Different MLS’s have similar but not exact designations for these various categories.  The goal is simply to divide successes by failures.

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