We believe the housing market is recovering. We believe that sales will be robust through the rest of the year. However, we also believe that the increase in demand will not impact prices in a big way as we think there will also be an increase in the supply of homes coming to the market. This increase in supply will offset the increase in demand. The increase in supply will be fueled by two categories of inventory:

1. Foreclosures entering the market as a result of the National Mortgage Settlement
2. Pent up supply of homeowners who have been unable to sell their homes over the last several years

There have been several recent headlines making strong statements about home values in the country. We must be sure to read the ENTIRE report – not just the headlines. Here are four headlines and the portion of the report that reflects the caution in their ‘cautious optimism’.

HEADLINE:

LPS Home Price Index Shows U.S. Home Price Increase of 0.2 Percent in February; Early Data Suggests Further Increase of 0.3 Percent is Likely During March

CAUTION:

“Reasons for caution are clear, as we’ve been here before. Non-seasonally adjusted prices increased for a few months in early 2009, 2010 and 2011 – trends that all ended by summer, after which all the gains – and then some – were lost. As is true this month, those temporary increases were on low sales volumes – about 30 percent lower than at any point since 1998. Furthermore, the inventory of distressed homes remains high, which will continue to put a drag on prices.”

HEADLINE:

Foreclosure hotspots show signs of housing turnaround

CAUTION:

“However, much will depend on the continued health of our economy, specifically job rates, and how lenders will release their foreclosure inventories now that the 49 state AG Agreement has been signed.”

HEADLINE:

Fiserv Expects Home Prices to Stabilize

CAUTION:

“On the other hand, nearly one-half of the metro areas, or 191, saw prices decrease by more than 2 percent, including double-digit losses in Atlanta (-12.8 percent), Reno, Nevada (-10.8 percent), and Tucson, Arizona (-10 percent).

In the fourth quarter of 2011, the average price of a U.S. single-family home fell four percent from the year-ago period, and Fiserv Case-Shiller projects a further decline of 0.8 percent by the end of 2012.”

HEADLINE:

Home Prices in March Show Monthly Gain: CoreLogic

CAUTION:

“Even with price gains above 5 percent for leading states and CBSAs, Capital Economics said in response to the CoreLogic report that over the year, prices are more likely to stabilize rather than make a dramatic climb.

“There are fears in some quarters, triggered by recent disappointing GDP and payrolls data, of a sharp slowdown in economic growth which could derail the fledgling improvement in the housing market,” said Paul Diggle, property economist for Capital Economics.”

The KCM Blog

We believe that short sales will be a major part of the real estate market in 2012. That is why we have dedicated this entire week to posts exclusively on this subject. We hope that by the end of the week you have a better handle on the need for short sales and a better understanding of the process. – the KCM Crew

It seems that the banks have finally realized that a short sale is a better option than foreclosure for them, the homeowner and the neighborhood. It is for this reason we believe that 2012 will come to be known as the year of the short sale. CNN Money reported on this exact point:

“We believe 2012 could be a record year for short sales,” said Daren Blomquist, vice president at RealtyTrac.

Banks are showing signs of being more open and willing to approve the deals — even if it means accepting less money. The average sales price for a short sale was $ 174,120 in January, down 4% from December and 10% year-over-year.

Market Watch also addressed the short sale situation recently:

Fitch expects the increase in short sales to continue because of the potential benefits afforded to both lenders and borrowers. Some borrowers may prefer short sales because, though they cannot stay in the property, they often walk away with cash incentives from lenders and healthier credit reports unmarred by foreclosure. For lenders, short sales provide a more efficient and cheaper alternative to the increasingly lengthy and costly foreclosure process.

Why Are the Banks Now Leaning Towards Short Sales?

The simple answer is that the banks lose less money when doing a short sale. The CNN Money article mentioned above explains:

Typically, banks get about 20% less for a foreclosed home. Foreclosure can also take years to unload, during which expenses, like property taxes, insurance and other expenses, mount up.

The Market Watch report breaks it down further:

Short sales…are currently getting completed 20 months after the last payment made on the loan, approximately 10 months less than the average time to foreclose. Shorter timelines reduce lenders’ carrying costs (i.e. accrued loan interest and property taxes, insurance, and maintenance) and eliminate most of the legal expenses associated with foreclosure and liquidation. As a result, loss severities tend to be considerably lower. Historically, for loans with similar attributes, short sales have severities 10%-15% less than REO sales. As the proportion of short sales increases, we expect average loss severities to improve further.

How Many Short Sales Could Be Completed?

JPMorgan has projected that over 500,000 short sales will be done this year. Also, NECN.com recently reported:

RealtyTrac estimates that if the January numbers it found hold up, there would be about 105,000 “pre-foreclosure” sales of homes, most of them short sales, during the first quarter of this year, and at that rate something like 400,000 for the year.

How Long Will Short Sales Be a Major Part of the Market?

The NECN article shows us that short sales are here to stay for some time.

According to the Mortgage Bankers Association, there are nearly 3.5 million homeowners delinquent on their mortgages by at least one month, including 1.5 million who are 90 days or more behind on paying their mortgage. And there are 12.5 million homeowners still who are “underwater,” owing more on their mortgage than their home is worth. That suggests that at the current rates, barring some spectacular economic recovery, it would take years, even decades, for short sales alone to clean up the mortgage mess that remains.

Short sales are here to stay. We must accept this fact and work hard to learn the process and apply it where it makes sense.

The KCM Blog

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The KCM Blog

With good preparation, most things are easier. That works in mortgages too! Today, I want to give you some ideas that can make your mortgage experience less painful.

Income Items:

1. Gather your documents. Today, many people will have to produce 2 years’ complete tax returns, including W2′s, 1099′s, K1′s, and all the schedules, as well as a month’s worth of pay stubs.
2. Be prepared to explain them. Deductions in your returns and your pay stubs may impact the income your lender will use to qualify you which, in turn, has a big impact on the loan you will get.
3. Have a breakdown of base pay versus overtime for both your pay stubs and 2 years’ W2′s. Lenders treat overtime (and bonus income) differently than your base pay. Be prepared to explain any changes over the last few years because your loan officer will ask you about it.

Asset Items:

1. Start accumulating your bank statements. Lenders look back 3 months from when you sign your contract of sale.
2. You will have to explain any and all large deposits (which are defined as deposits greater than your regular pay check) because lenders want to make sure you haven’t taken out any new loans that aren’t on your credit report.
3. Avoid any significant cash deposits. However, if you did have a cash deposit, understand that the lender will have you source it (a bill of sale and DMV receipt for that motorcycle, for example).
4. If you will be receiving a gift, consult your loan officer on how to document it (from the donor’s ability to how you deposit it).

Credit Items:

1. Ask your loan officer to run your credit and go over it with them. Believe it or not, most credit reports contain errors. Best to identify them and get working on correcting them as early as possible.
2. Do what you can to pay down your balances to under 30% of available credit to help you get the best score possible.
3. Do NOT close accounts or pay off collection accounts without discussing it with your loan officer. Either one of these logical moves can actually have a negative impact on your score.

When buying a home, remember the Boy Scout motto, “Be prepared”. Following these suggestions will make your loan approval easier and less stressful.

The KCM Blog

One of the great things about this country is that we do a lot for those who have served us. And in the area of real estate financing, we can do exceptional things.

Understand that the VA (Veterans’ Administration) is, in the mortgage world, like HUD is with FHA financing. They are an insurance company, collecting premiums and using the backing of the Federal government to guarantee the payments to lenders. Because of the government’s guarantee, lenders can stretch traditional guidelines and offer very competitive terms (of course, while adhering to the VA’s guidance).

Some of the more attractive features of a VA loan are:

1. 100% Financing on Home Purchases – Veterans, assuming they are in good standing, can buy a home with no money down. In most cases, the maximum VA loan is $ 417,000.
2. The Ability to Finance Reasonable Closing Costs – On many VA loans, the closing costs are negotiated into the sales price and the seller pays them. This feature can significantly reduce the cash a veteran needs to buy a home.
3. More Understanding with Regards to Credit Challenges – In an effort to help those who served us, lenders are more liberal towards hiccups in credit.
4. Common-Sense Look at Income – Rather than approve loans strictly by income ratios, VA mortgages incorporate what is called Residual Income. There is a form that actually budgets all expenses (not just housing) to account for family size, heating and electrical usage, and more.
5. Financed Insurance Premium – The VA charges what they call a Funding Fee to set up a fund to reimburse lenders, should a default occur. The Funding Fee varies on loan terms and usage (consult your lender for exact costs), but the good news is that it is typically just added to your loan. Instead of paying thousands of dollars up front, you can pay $ 10-$ 50 a month in a higher payment.
6. Refinancing Your VA Loan is Easy – Through the I.R.R.L. (Interest Rate Reduction Loan) Program, getting a better rate (if the market has better rates) does not carry with it all the verifications of income, credit, appraisals, and assets of other loans…and closing costs can be added into the loan! The logic is the VA is already “on the hook” and lowering the payment increases the likelihood of continued payments, so why not be as lenient as possible.

For more detailed answers, contact your local mortgage professional. With three million veterans returning home in the next couple years, the opportunity of VA financing needs to be publicized.

The KCM Blog